A multi‐state approach to modelling intermediate events and multiple mortgage loan outcomes

Chamboko, R., & Bravo, J. M. (2020). A multi‐state approach to modelling intermediate events and multiple mortgage loan outcomes. Risks, 8(2), 1-29. [64]. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks8020064This paper proposes a novel system‐wide multi‐state framework to model state occupations and the transitions among current, delinquency, default, prepayment, repurchase, short sale and foreclosure on mortgage loans. The approach allows for the modelling of the progression of borrowers from one state to another to fully understand the risks of a cohort of borrowers over time. We use a multi‐state Markov model to model the transitions to and from various states. The key factors affecting the transition into various loan outcomes are the ability to pay as measured by debt‐to‐income ratio, equity as marked by loan‐to‐value ratio, interest rates and the property type. Our findings have broader policy implications for better decision‐making on granting loans and the design of debt relief and mortgage modification policies.publishersversionpublishe

Improving credit scoring by differentiating default behaviour

We present a methodology for improving credit scoring models by distinguishing two forms of rational behaviour of loan defaulters. It is common knowledge among practitioners that there are two types of defaulters, those who do not pay because of cash flow problems (‘Can’t Pay’), and those that do not pay because of lack of willingness to pay (‘Won’t Pay’). This work proposes to differentiate them using a game theory model that describes their behaviour. This separation of behaviours is represented by a set of constraints that form part of a semi-supervised constrained clustering algorithm, constructing a new target variable summarizing relevant future information. Within this approach the results of several supervised models are benchmarked, in which the models deliver the probability of belonging to one of these three new classes (good payers, ‘Can’t Pays’, and ‘Won’t Pays’). The process improves classification accuracy significantly, and delivers strong insights regarding the behaviour of defaulter

Development and application of consumer credit scoring models using profit-based classification measures

This paper presents a new approach for consumer credit scoring, by tailoring a profit-based classification performance measure to credit risk modeling. This performance measure takes into account the expected profits and losses of credit granting and thereby better aligns the model developers' objectives with those of the lending company. It is based on the Expected Maximum Profit (EMP) measure and is used to find a trade-off between the expected losses -- driven by the exposure of the loan and the loss given default -- and the operational income given by the loan. Additionally, one of the major advantages of using the proposed measure is that it permits to calculate the optimal cutoff value, which is necessary for model implementation. To test the proposed approach, we use a dataset of loans granted by a government institution, and benchmarked the accuracy and monetary gain of using EMP, accuracy, and the area under the ROC curve as measures for selecting model parameters, and for determining the respective cutoff values. The results show that our proposed profit-based classification measure outperforms the alternative approaches in terms of both accuracy and monetary value in the test set, and that it facilitates model deployment

Development and application of consumer credit scoring models using profit-based classification measures

This paper presents a new approach for consumer credit scoring, by tailoring a profit-based classification performance measure to credit risk modeling. This performance measure takes into account the expected profits and losses of credit granting and thereby better aligns the model developers' objectives with those of the lending company. It is based on the Expected Maximum Profit (EMP) measure and is used to find a trade-off between the expected losses -- driven by the exposure of the loan and the loss given default -- and the operational income given by the loan. Additionally, one of the major advantages of using the proposed measure is that it permits to calculate the optimal cutoff value, which is necessary for model implementation. To test the proposed approach, we use a dataset of loans granted by a government institution, and benchmarked the accuracy and monetary gain of using EMP, accuracy, and the area under the ROC curve as measures for selecting model parameters, and for determining the respective cutoff values. The results show that our proposed profit-based classification measure outperforms the alternative approaches in terms of both accuracy and monetary value in the test set, and that it facilitates model deployment

Manifestaciones cutáneas en personal militar joven con diagnóstico Covid 19 - Perú: Skin manifestations in young military personnel diagnosed with Covid 19 - Peru

COVID-19 is a highly contagious respiratory tract infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The infection has been reported to demonstrate different types of skin manifestations including urticarial, maculopapular, papulovesicular, purpuric, livedoid, and thrombotic-ischemic lesions. Given the high mortality rate of the infection, timely and accurate identification of relevant skin manifestations can play a key role in early diagnosis and management.Skin manifestations, a well-known effect of viral infections, are beginning to be reported in patients with COVID-19 disease. These manifestations most often are morbilliform rash, hives, vesicular rashes, acral lesions, and livedoid rashes. Some of these skin manifestations arise before the signs and symptoms most commonly associated with COVID-19, suggesting that they may be showing signs of COVID-19 Bibliographic reports showed great heterogeneity in the skin manifestations associated with COVID-19, as well as in their latency periods and associated extracutaneous symptoms. Pathogenic mechanisms are unknown, although the functions of an overactive immune response, complement activation and microvascular injury have been hypothesized. Based on our experience and bibliographic data, we subdivide reported skin lesions into six main clinical patterns: (I) urticarial rash; (II) erythematous-maculopapular-morbilliforma confluent rash; (III) papulovesicular exanthemum; (IV) chilblain-like acral pattern; (V) livedo reticularis–livedo racemosa-like pattern; and (VI) purpurico "vasculytic" pattern. These six patterns can be fused into two main groups: the first – inflammatory and exanthemum – includes the first three groups mentioned above, and the second includes vasculopathic and vasculytic lesions of the last three groups.We can conclude that skin manifestations are similar to skin involvement that occurs during common viral infections.La enfermedad por coronavirus es una infección del tracto respiratorio altamente contagioso causado por el coronavirus del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave. La infección se ha divulgado para demostrar diferentes tipos de manifestaciones cutáneas incluyendo lesiones urticariales, maculopapulares, papulovesiculares, purpuricas, livedoides, y trombótica-isquémica. Dada la alta tasa de mortalidad de la infección, la identificación oportuna y precisa de las manifestaciones cutáneas puede desempeñar un papel clave en el diagnóstico y manejo tempranos.Las manifestaciones cutáneas son comunes en infecciones virales, en el caso de la enfermedad por coronavirus se han reportado diversas manifestaciones, entre ellas las más comunes son: erupción morbilliforme, urticaria, erupciones vesiculares, lesiones acrales, y erupciones livedoides. Algunas de estas manifestaciones cutáneas surgen antes de los signos y síntomas más comúnmente asociados con COVID-19, lo que sugiere que podrían estar presentando signos de COVID-19.Los informes bibliográficos mostraron una gran heterogeneidad en las manifestaciones cutáneas asociadas a COVID-19, así como en sus períodos de latencia y los síntomas extracutáneos asociados. Se desconocen los mecanismos patógenos, aunque se han hipotetizado las funciones de una respuesta inmune hiperactiva, la activación del complemento y la lesión microvascular. Basándonos en nuestra experiencia y los datos bibliográficos, subdividimos las lesiones cutáneas notificadas en seis patrones clínicos principales: (I) erupción urticarial; (II) erupción eritematosa-maculopapular-morbilliforme confluente; (III) exantema papulovesicular; (IV) patrón acral similar a la chilblain; (V) patrón livedo reticularis–livedo racemosa-like; y (VI) patrón "vasculítico" purpúrico. Estos seis patrones se pueden fusionar en dos grupos principales: el primero - inflamatorio y exantematoso - incluye los tres primeros grupos mencionados anteriormente, y el segundo incluye las lesiones vasculopáticas y vasculíticas de los últimos tres grupos.Podemos concluir que las manifestaciones cutáneas son similares a la afectación cutánea que ocurre durante las infecciones virales comunes

Analyzing the Implementation of Nutrient Management Plans by Farmers: Implications for Extension Education

We conducted case studies on four Connecticut dairy farms to evaluate how well farmers implemented their nutrient management plans (NMPs). Our findings can help Extension educators develop programs to improve NMPs and NMP adoption by farmers. We identified three educational topic areas that would likely increase NMP understanding and acceptance: (a) soil testing protocol, results interpretation, and nutrient recommendations; (b) manure fertilizer-equivalent value, proper application, and effective distribution; and (c) costs and benefits of substituting on-farm manure for purchased commercial fertilizer. A new adaptive nutrient management program presents a timely opportunity for cost-effective and collaborative on-farm education efforts by Extension and the Natural Resources Conservation Service

Collpas: Activity hotspots for frugivorous bats (Phyllostomidae) in the Peruvian Amazon

In the SE Peruvian Amazon, large numbers of frugivorous bats regularly visit natural forest clearings known locally as collpas (which are also referred to as clay licks or mineral licks). Bats arrive at collpas to drink water that has accumulated in depressions created by larger geophagous mammals that consume exposed soil. Although collpa visitation is common, little is known about its causes and its ecological implications for the bat community. We compared patterns of use of collpas and non-collpa forest sites by bats in SE Peru. We mist netted bats at collpas and non-collpa sites during the dry season and compared abundance, species richness, species composition, sex ratio, and reproductive condition. More species were captured at collpas than at non-collpa sites, and collpas were visited almost exclusively by frugivores. Overall, bat-capture frequency and combined frugivorous bat-capture frequency were higher at collpas than at non-collpa sites, although some species of frugivorous bats were captured more frequently at non-collpa sites than at collpas (e.g., Carollia spp.). Irrespective of capture site, more female bats were pregnant or lactating than not, but there was a distinct female sex bias in bats that visited collpas: 70 percent of bats captured at collpas were female, whereas 44 percent of bats captured away from collpas were female. These patterns suggest that collpas may provide important resources for frugivorous bats in SE Peru, just as they are thought to provide important resources to the vertebrates that consume collpa soils. Accordingly, collpas are important conservation targets in the region. © 2008 The Author(s)

Desarrollo de un programa de evaluación y seguimiento en seguridad industrial, salud ocupacional y ambiental para los subcontratistas de una empresa de construcción en el sector hidrocarburífero en el Ecuador.

Este documento contiene archivo en PDF.El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es desarrollar un programa de evaluación y seguimiento en seguridad industrial, salud ocupacional y ambiental para los subcontratistas de una empresa de construcción del sector hidrocarburífero en el Ecuador. La investigación es desarrollada en la empresa Tesca Ingeniería del Ecuador utilizando técnica e instrumentos para recolectar datos como revisión de documentos, entrevistas, encuestas, registros de historia de inspecciones a empresas subcontratadas y se utilizó el método de observación y análisis para determinar los requisitos legales en materia de seguridad industrial, salud ocupacional y ambiental vigentes en el Ecuador. Se formuló una herramienta de recolección de información y la metodología para el programa de evaluación y seguimiento en seguridad, salud ocupacional y Ambiental para los subcontratistas la misma fue planteada como un programa sistemático de auditorías programadas y validada mediante consultas a expertos en el área de seguridad, salud y ambiente. Con el desarrollo de la auditoría a los subcontratistas para el cumplimiento de los criterios, permite determinar el diagnóstico de cumplimiento de los requisitos legales en Seguridad industrial, salud ocupacional y ambiental y tomar acciones para el mejoramiento del sistema evaluado mediante la ejecución del programa desarrollado.The objective of the present research work is to develop a program of evaluation and follow up an industrial security, occupational health and environmental to subcontractors of a company of constructions in the hydrocarbons sector in Equator. The research was developed in Tesca Company Engineering of Equator using technics and instruments for gather data such as review documents, interviews, polls, history record checks to subcontractors company and to use the observation method and analysis to determinate the legal requirement in subject of industrial security, occupational health and environmental used in Equator. To formulate a tool of collection of information and the methodology for the evaluation program and follow up in security, occupational health and environmental to subcontractors, the same was raised as a systematic program of scheduled audits and validated them through consultations to expert in the security area, health and environmental. With the development of audits to subcontractors for the compliance criteria, It was determinated the diagnostic of fulfillment of legal requirements in Industrial Security, Occupational health and environmental and take actions for the improvement of the system evaluated through of development program execution

Calidad del Servicio y Satisfacción del Usuario en la Aduana Aérea del Callao - 2017

La presente investigación titulada “Calidad del Servicio del usuario en la Aduana Aérea del Callao - 2017”, tuvo como objetivo establecer el nivel de la calidad de servicio brindado tanto en la sede aérea como en la sede postal, luego del cual se determinó si existía diferencia significativa entre ambos. La investigación se desarrolló bajo un diseño descriptivo comparativo, con enfoque cuantitativo, con dos muestras independientes que sumaban 382 usuarios de ambas sedes, se hizo uso del cuestionario servperf adaptado de 15 ítems con escala Likert de cinco puntos con una confiablidad de 0.923 en el coeficiente de Alpha de Cronbach. Los resultados descriptivos indican niveles del 75.7% y 74.4% de aceptación en la calidad de servicio percibido por los usuarios de la sede aérea y la sede postal respectivamente, obteniendo puntaje más bajo en la dimensión empatía con niveles del 55.9% y 29.5%. En la prueba de hipótesis de diferencia de grupos con el uso del coeficiente de U Mann-Whitney se obtuvo un p-valor < 0.05 por lo cual, se rechazó la Hipótesis nula y se aceptó la Hipótesis alterna, en consecuencia con un nivel de significación del 5% se puede afirmar que existe diferencia entre las sedes de la Intendencia de Aduana Aérea y Postal en cuanto a la calidad del servicio

Robot omnidireccional para el diagnóstico del déficit de atención

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) occurs in 16% of the Colombian student population and estimates that between 30-70% of these children continue to show symptoms in adulthood. Thus, a tool is proposed for the professional to support his diagnosis according to the criteria offered by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DMS). An omnidirectional platform is implemented, striking for its design, for children, adolescents and that becomes a concentration challenge for adults.With an Electroencephalography (EEG) helmet a brain wave reading is made; with the help of a Computer Brain Interface (BCI) you can have the reading of facial gestures, having said reading is implemented to control the omnidirectional platform, with the same BCI you also have the reading of concentration, stress, excitation, etc. of individuals; Thus, the professional in the area can support his diagnosis according to several factors, such as: EEG interpretation, emotional data (concentration, stress, excitement ...), and the observation of the individual. The evaluation of the patient makes the health professional, generating some challenges to overcome the platform and interpreting the different data according to their professional criteria.El TDAH se presenta en un 16% de la población estudiantil colombiana, además, estima que entre el 30-70% de estos niños sigue presentando síntomas en edad adulta. Así, se plantea una herramienta para que el profesional, apoye su diagnóstico según los criterios ofrecidos por el “DMS”. Se implementa una plataforma omnidireccional, llamativa por su diseño, para niños, adolescentes y que llega a ser un desafío de concentración para adultos.Con un casco de EEG se hace una lectura de las ondas cerebrales; con ayuda de una BCI se puede tener la lectura de los gestos faciales, al tener dicha lectura se implementa al control de la plataforma omnidireccional, con la misma BCI también se tiene la lectura de la concentración, estrés, excitación…etc. de los individuos; así el profesional en el área puede apoyar su diagnóstico según varios factores, como: la interpretación EEG, datos emocionales (concentración, estrés, excitación…), y la observación del individuo. La evaluación del paciente la hace el profesional de la salud, generando algunos retos a superar con la plataforma e interpretando los diferentes datos según su criterio profesional